Inside Iran [11.03.14]

• Iran :The revolution is over. After decades of messianic fervour, Iran is becoming a more mature and modern country, says Oliver August (Economist)

• Domestic politics : Rush to the centre. Iran’s political elite maintains a delicate balance (Economist)

"AYATOLLAH KHOMEINI, THE founder of the Islamic Republic, was essentially an anarchist. Having been persecuted by the shah’s secret police, he despised state structures. Yet after grabbing power he quickly realised that the gains of the revolution could be cemented only with the help of permanent institutions. So he set out to build them, lots of them, sometimes with the explicit intention that they should keep an eye on each other: the army held in check by the revolutionary guard, justice dispensed by clerics as well as by civilian judges in separate courts, militias performing some of the same functions as the police, an elected president facing an appointed supreme leader. Khomeini mimicked America’s Founding Fathers, creating checks and balances and occasional gridlock.

Three and a half decades later, Iran’s political system is neither a free-flowing democracy nor a monolithic dictatorship. As one dissident says, “We have freedom of expression, just not freedom after expression.” Public debates are fierce, but often amount to little more than shadow-boxing by an elite that makes decisions behind closed doors. What is remarkable is the size of this elite. Thousands of politicians, clerics, generals, judges, journalists, academics, businessmen and others participate in decision-making in one way or another, shaping government policy in endless and overlapping private meetings, conversations and conclaves, listening to and lobbying each other.

Often described as a constitutional theocracy, Iran also resembles a democratic oligarchy. No one man or group within the semi-representative elite holds anything more than a sliver of power. A coalition of naysayers can usually stop the executive from moving too far ahead. Big decisions require if not consensus then at least sizeable majorities. Assembling them takes time and stand-offs are common. But once made, decisions have a good chance of holding.

All this is achieved in the near-absence of political parties. 

This anarchic system just about works because at its centre sits a supreme leader (always a high cleric) who draws his authority from the revolution. Ali Khamenei, who was appointed for life in 1989, is only the second person to hold the job. His way of operating is to wait for consensus to form in debates and step in only when he has to in order to break a deadlock. He sees himself less as a decider than a referee."

• Iran : The revolution is over. Changes in Iran make a nuclear deal more likely—not this month, perhaps, but eventually (Economist) 

• Business in Iran : Awaiting the gold rush. Foreign firms are keen to get back into Iran if sanctions are lifted (Economist) 

"... in a small taste of things to come, on October 22nd Boeing said it had made its first sale to Iran since the Islamic Revolution in 1979: $120,000-worth of aircraft manuals and other data

Familiar faces have returned, such as managers from Peugeot, a French carmaker which had a 30% market share in Iran before pulling out in 2012.

Sanctions have depressed its GDP by 25% in the past three years, according to the American government; but it is still $1.2 trillion at purchasing-power parity, making Iran the world’s 18th-largest economy. The population of 80m is well-educated; the country’s oil and gas reserves are huge. The Tehran stock exchange is the second-biggest in the Middle East, with a capitalisation of about $150 billion, according to Turquoise Partners, the first foreign investment fund dedicated to Iran. But foreigners own only 0.1% of listed companies’ shares, compared with 50% on Turkey’s main exchange in Istanbul.

The Tehran stockmarket is pretty well run. Its operator and its regulator have been separated and live market data are available online."