(First written and published in a College magazine in 2008. Modifications done later.)
What if it was possible to chat with smart devices around you? Or what if most of your limbs were artificial and invisible nano-robots were busily moving around inside your body? How would it feel to live in the world of virtual reality with all artificial senses?
Sounds unrealistic?
Thanks to science and technology, the line between reality and unreality is blurring day by day. An unprecedented revolution is happening before our eyes. Biotechnology gives us the tools to manipulate, control and enhance life. The availability of information is affecting the world in many ways. And nanotechnology is producing innovative products as well as increasing product performance.
Observing these, computer scientist and author Vernor Vinge introduced the concept of Technological Singularity [2]. His predictions are based largely on advances in computer technology. The idea is that: at some point in the 21st century, computer intelligence will surpass human intelligence, and then development will accelerate so much (since computers are smarter than humans, computers will start inventing everything), that future cannot be predicted.
Realist: But can you really predict the future accurately?
An example from thermodynamics can be used to answer this question.
In thermodynamics it is almost impossible to predict where a tiny gas molecule will go, how fast it will go - another molecule can come knocking at any time. But the behavior of gases composed of billions of molecules is much more predictable by some laws. Otherwise, we would not have obtained the formula PV = nRT for gas. Here we can predict the temperature, pressure, and volume of the gas, but we can never accurately predict a single gas molecule.
Similarly, although it is difficult to predict where any one field or subfield of technology will end up, some technologists believe that the development of technology in human society may be predictable from the combined action of all the subfields.
From Information theory proponent Claude Shannon, physicist Stephen Hawking to almost all famous scientists and engineers, all have argued the various possibilities of the technological revolution. One of them is artificial intelligence expert Ray Kurzweil. He has written several books on where future technology will be and when exactly it will be on the market [3]. His argument is based on Intel founder Moore's law. According to Moore's law, the number of transistors in integrated circuits is doubling approximately every two years [4]. In other words, the growth rate of computer intelligence is exponential (getting faster and faster), not linear.
The concept of
Exponential growth is important to understand.
Let's say, there are 2 flowers in a pond.
First, assume that the number of flowers increases at a linear rate – 2 per day. Then on the 2nd day there will be 4 flowers, on the 3rd day 6, so after 10 days 20.
Now imagine, the number of flowers is increasing at an exponential rate – doubling every day. Then there will be 4 flowers on 2nd day, 8 on 3rd day, 16 on 4th day, 1024 after 10 days.
There is much difference: 20 and 1024.
If the exponential rate continues, after 20 days the number of flowers will exceed 1 million.
If something is growing at an exponential rate, how fast is the change - get it? Computer power is increasing at an exponential rate.
Now imagine, if computer power is doubling every one and a half to two years, how fast it is growing. In fact, the capabilities of a desktop computer only a few years ago are now lesser than that of a smart phone in the palm of one's hand.
What has happened as a result of the increase in computer power is that the technologies that rely on computers are also growing at a doubling rate. The explosion of the modern Internet in a short period of time is an example. The beginning of the Web happened in the mid-90s. Before this, the Internet was not prevalent among the general public. And now we can imagine life without the Internet?
We are seeing the effects of exponential improvements in other areas of technology as well. For example, while it took us 15 years to sequence HIV, it took just 31 days to sequence SARS.
Physicist: But exponential growth cannot continue indefinitely. At some point there may be a clash with basic sciences. For example, the size of transistors can only be reduced up to a limit according to quantum mechanics. Next?
Kurzweil also explains how exponential growth can proceed without conflicting with basic sciences. According to him, paradigm change will occur before the limit can be reached. That is, if the same trend does not progress, a completely new trend will emerge. As was the case during the transition from vacuum tubes to integrated circuits. There may be transition from integrated circuits to three-dimensional molecular computing.
So, without further ado let's see what future technology is waiting for us. Let's take a look at ourselves first.
Human Body Version 2.0
Sons and daughters never look exactly like their parents. Brothers and sisters do not look alike. Genes from parents are changed to offspring through recombination, mutation. And our body is the product of billions of years of
Biological Evolution, the process of changing little by little from species to species.
One of the many adaptations that evolution has made to make us fitter is the storage of calories in the body - to be used when food is scarce after an abundance. Our ancestors did not always have enough to eat. So, once you find something to eat, you need to eat a lot and store it in your body. But today this biological strategy has almost completely turned against us. This is largely responsible for obesity, coronary artery disease and type-2 diabetes.
This is just an example. Many other processes of evolution are going against our needs in the new world today. So many scientists think it's time to redesign the body to suit the modern world. We are already disrupting the body's natural cycle with drugs, replacing many organs with devices. Through biology, bioengineering and nanotechnology, we want to design systems for the body that are longer lasting, stronger, disease resistant and more pleasurable.
Nanobots or blood cell-sized robots [6] will play a leading role in this. Nanobots will play the role of a tiny robot surgeon to cure body of diseases. Nanobots will create artificial sensations in virtual reality by making direct contact with our sensory organs – a dream that is inspiring many scientists. It doesn't end here. Nanomedicine researcher Robert Freitas wants to redesign our red blood cells. He wants to design it in such a way that the need for heart lessens in our bodies. The heart is basically an organ for pumping blood in the body. If red blood cells can be designed that can self-distribute throughout the body, the need for a heart is reduced.
Stem cell research is advancing the field. Stem cells are cells that act as mother cells of various organs and tissues [5]. Kidneys gradually develop from kidney stem cells. Heart stem cells become whole hearts. If we can learn to nurture stem cells, we can make any organ. In short, in the 21st century almost all parts of the body can be replaced with artificial organs.
Neuroscientist: But the brain cannot be replaced. If the brain is replaced, a person will not feel that he is the same person as before. So? Will the intelligence of the human community always remain the same?
The topics of Brain and intelligence will now be discussed.
Development and future of intelligence
With the incredible success of science, modern scientists and engineers think that modern science can explain everything in the universe. But those of us who independently acquire knowledge of all kinds know that there are many things in the universe that are still beyond the reach of modern science. Many things cannot be explained by modern science especially modern physics. If scientists consider them, they will say that science must be rewritten! My personal opinion: We will gradually find the nature of Ultimate Reality. Modern science is a part of that ultimate reality.According to modern science, man is an insignificant thing in the universe. A vast universe – consisting of billions of galaxies. Theirs is a planet in the star called the Sun of the Milky Way Galaxy. Although the probability is very low, a human-like animal has been created through evolution!
But we now know that there is something called Consciousness and Spirit beyond matter and energy, and that Consciousness and Spirit has many powers, which cannot be explained by matter and energy. Taking Consciousness into account, we understand: We, humans are not insignificant at all, but the universe exists around us.
Modern science explains the evolution of the universe as follows:
- The origin of the universe took place according to unknown laws of physics.
- Its development happened through the combined action of physics and chemistry.
- Then the origin of life came about through DNA or RNA.
- Much later the brain emerged for centralized control of life.
- As the brain evolves, so does technology, and now we stand at a crossroad. We await for the merging of life and technology and the creation of higher forms of life and intelligence. This requires the creation of artificial intelligence that can take technology to that level faster than humans.
Critic: Artificial intelligence has been giving a message of hope ever since 1950s. Will we ever get true artificial intelligence?
Ray Kurzweil, like many others, expressed strong optimism in this regard. He has outlined his road map. According to this roadmap, we will achieve the brain equivalent of hardware within the next decade through nanotechnology. Maybe that will be through three-dimensional molecular computing. And it will not be difficult to achieve brain equivalence in software.
Software Engineer: Progress in software is linear - that is, slow. Ten years ago, we used Google and we still use it today. Admittedly, though, today's Google has a lot more information to take into account.
Kurzweil's idea is that software will improve not slowly but rapidly. His argument is that we have begun to model the brain. Modeling the brain and creating mathematical and computational models of it is progressing at an exponential pace. For example, Lloyd Watts modeled 15 brain regions involved in auditory analysis and implemented them on a computer. On the other hand, Carnegie Mellon's Tom Michel is trying to understand the workings of the brain using different methods of machine learning [7]. Once the complete model of the brain is completed, we will apply it to the computer and create a human-level artificial intelligence. According to Kurzweil, that unforgettable event is going to happen by 2029.
One thing needs to be understood here. That artificial intelligence will not be able to enjoy the music, but it will be able to tune the music. It won't enjoy beauty, but can correctly identify everything.
Social scientist: 8 billion people live on earth. And what is the importance of joining the same level of intelligence of a person? What effect will it have on society?
To tell the truth, the importance is now that the machine can think and calculate very quickly, can remember perfectly, can exchange knowledge at high speed. More importantly, according to Kurzweil, non-biological intelligence will double in effetiveness every year. Then communication will be established between the human brain and the computer and then humans will become complete cyborgs.
The enormous power of human intelligence and artificial intelligence will then go out to conquer the universe. Not only will the universe be conquered, but the matter of the universe will be used for intelligence and computation, and we will rush into the final stages of evolution.
Next? Let's leave it up to you, the reader, to decide what happens next! You do have a stake in this universe, don't you?
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